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Most New Years Predictions are Wrong. Here are Mine for 2010.

With the year well underway I'm sure you've noticed, like I have, the immense number of tweets, blog posts, and other web-chatter with New Year trends and predictions in the world of tech for 2010. Everyone has an opinion on what's going to happen, as if the spirit of Nostradamus insinuated itself into the Web and imbued everyone who has an Internet presence his legendary powers of precognition.

Some quick background before I continue: I've been cleaning out my garage over the last few days and happened upon a very large stack of magazines, clippings, and website printouts from as far back as 1999 and began sorting through all of it. Of a, oh, 36" high stack of assorted papers and old magazines I only kept about a half inch worth of stuff. (Most of which, incidentally, are funny Dilbert strips, hard copies of emails long since deleted and/or lost in their digital state, and a very small amount of still relevant information like a recipe for a great rib roast) My how the hot topics of the day go by the wayside after 8-10 years of stewing in a box next to my old high school yearbooks.

Anyhow, something I noticed in sorting through the big tall stack of tech-related stuff were the prediction issues of the magazines: who's hot, what's going to happen, and where the big events will take place in the culture and business of technology. Not surprisingly the number of correct predictions totaled approximately .5%. (This is not a scientifically accurate calculation, but is probably pretty F-ing close) Those are really terrible stats. Hell, you've got a better chance at winning a hand at Blackjack in a Vegas casino (if you're counting cards, and if they catch you they'll break your legs) than you do by following someone's advice on what's going to be what.

How could a multi-billion dollar industry, chock-o-block full of smart, creative, and well-connected teams of journalists hailing from so very many respected institutions of higher learning fail in accurately gauging the next wave of movers and shakers? I don't know the answer to that. If I did I'd probably be some sort of high-falutin' media consultant making six figures a year.

Please note: I am *not* a high-falutin' media consultant making six figures a year.

I'm just a dude with a keyboard, a few magazine and RSS feed subscriptions, and a great big bag full of "Here's what I think..." thrown into the mix. I don't have a fancy journalism degree, I don't sit on the board of any public company, and I certainly am not an "insider". Having said that I can't, in good conscience, let this start without giving my own very-likely-to-be-99.5%-chance-of-being-wrong predictions for 2010.

1. Social Media gets bigger.

   Duh. It seems like everyone is on some kind of social media site these days. There are already reports that your Nana has a Facebook account. No, seriously. @MisterHapa tweeted about it.

   OK, maybe not everyone... I guess it's hard for newborns or the recently comatose to sign up. But outside of those groups, or the damned, dirty apes of the world (read: neo-luddites and other tech naysayers), people are jamming themselves into social media sites like sardines in a can; and it's my opinion that it's just going to get tighter in the tin. Every social media site* is going to blow up with more users, or at the very least will continue to receive an insane amount of press.

2. Microblogging is dead, long live microblogging.

   I think it's safe to say that 2009 could be considered the year that the (mass) media finally picked up on (and halfway figured out) Twitter, rammed it down everyone's throat who didn't know about it (with the aforementioned media outlets seeming, to those folks, like a cutting edge source of tech information), and fostered an environment of "Hey we ought to try that" amongst the pointy-haired bosses of the world.

   It's a wonderful thing, this Twitter phenomenon, but I think we all know that 140 characters just ain't enough to make a lasting impact all by it's lonesome. I certainly don't think Twitter or any old/new micro-blogging platform is going away, but I do believe that people, people who have a stake in a company's online presence in particular, are going to course-correct and focus on real content for the long term. And by "real content" I mean the 141+ character variety.

   I'm not saying anyone is giving up on microblogging, it's just going to be given it's due attention and integrated into the rest of a media campaign vs. being the flavor of the week with all eyes on it like it's the lightning in a bottle everyone is hoping for.

3. Mobile technology, media, and apps get bigger, better, and more penetration.

   Hmmm... in retrospect that sounds kinda dirty, but we'll stick with it for now. What we call a smart phone now is going to be morphing over the next 3-7 years to something akin to a Tricorder from Star Trek: The Next Generation. 2010 will be the next big step in this evolution with a new iPhone circa July and another leap by someone else circa November. Droid? Palm? Blackberry? I dunno, folks, I'm just spitballin' here like everyone else.

4. Netbook sales will shrink as mobile computing becomes a reality in your pocket.

   Much like my mobile prediction previous to this, the more our phones become like our computers, the need for a netbook will dwindle. Tablets (decent ones, that are powerful and affordable) might not come to fruition this year (in a widespread fashion, at least), but the promise of them will be enough to make the idea of buying a netbook seem downright silly by the end of the year, especially with phones doing more and more for us. Personally I can't wait to be able to painlessly edit my code and run a mini server on an iPhone or the rumored iTablet from Apple.

That's it. Be they ever so humble, those are my predictions for 2010. Let's check back in next January to see how I did.

* Except for MySpace. Bonus prediction time, kids: MySpace will continue on a downward spiral into obsolescence until:

1. It gets carried off like Han in carbonite by some kind of sale to a sucker new investor, who hopefully will have the resources and matching brain cells to find a way to stop the insanity of the overly-customizable profile pages with red backgrounds & blue text and under-sexed teen anime drawings as background images (not to mention increasing revenues and growing their user base again), or

2. The powers that be pull their heads out of their asses and focus on the 2 things with the potential to keep 'em coming back: Music and Comedy (in particular: something that will work for both artists and fans, like exclusivity agreements to artists in exchange for revenue sharing or something crazy like that).